世銀とIMFアジアでのバブル懸念

世銀 IMF アジア
  • ウォールストリート・ジャーナル紙ヘッドライン（4日付）

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20091104-00000806-reu-int

★世界銀行と国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）、政府・中央銀行が行っている景気支援策が、特にアジア地域において、不動産・株式・為替市場の資産バブル形成を促がすとの懸念を強める。

バブルの話題は今日

http://d.hatena.ne.jp/ROBERT-B-PARKER/20091104/1257308000
でも扱いましたが、バブルと分かってもはじけるまでは乗るしかないですよね。アメリカ経済にも日本経済にも警鐘が鳴らされている今、安全な資産なんてあるんでしょうか。金は高すぎな気がするし。

本文はこれじゃないでしょうか

  • World Bank Warns Asian Recovery May Fuel Bubble

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/11/04/world-bank-warns-asian-recovery-may-fuel-bubble/

By Alex Frangos

The World Bank issued its semiannual report on East Asia today calling the recovery there “surprisingly swift and very welcome.” But the report warned of what might come next: dangerous asset bubbles.

Besides raising the bank’s growth forecast for the region to 6.7% this year from 5.3%, the report is notable because it recognizes the burdens Asia faces for being the first region to come out of the global slowdown. As Asian economies zoom ahead and the U.S. and EU and Japan keep interest rates low, lots of capital is flowing to developing Asia. That’s a recipe for quick inflation of asset prices, something already being seen in real estate, commodities, stocks and currencies.

“As liquidity is working its way through the system, and demand is relatively low, the credit is finding its way to stock exchanges and real estate markets. It’s a danger,” says Vikram Nehru, the World Bank’s chief economist for East Asia and Pacific.

But the obvious answer isn’t simply to raise rates. That can have the effect of attracting even more capital seeking higher interest yields, which makes it hard for central bankers to force real market interest rates higher. Singapore and South Korea have used regulatory measures such as tightening mortgage rules, to help slow down real estate. The other downside of broadly raising rates to target asset bubbles is it can snuff out fragile recoveries.

Mr. Nehru says the asset price situation is of particular concern for China, the largest economy in the group. “The problem China has is that if they tighten monetary policy, it will lead to further inflows of foreign exchanges. They have to resort to administrative ceilings on credit, and especially sectors like real estate,” he says.

The report says the surprise growth is better news for Asia’s poor. Those living on less than $2 a day will drop to 446 million people in 2010 from 508 million in 2008. That’s faster than the World Bank figured based on its previous growth forecast. Had the slowdown never happened at all, historical growth rates would have implied a drop to 432 million poor in 2010.